I made theory based on last month earnings graph. Besides the 'exit links' (mean someone clicks the ads) which appears a lot of time make me believe that adsense is not accurate and thus, make mistakes all the time.
But it is not true after all. I found this here at Google Adsense forum (link) and that explains the exit links issue.
Hi, one Possible reason is that if the same people are clicking on your ads on days 2 and 3 as they were for day 1 then these would be classed by Googles program as INVALID clicks as it looks quite suspicious that the same person would do that. (this is only an example I'm making no claims of any kind ... there are lots of reasons for invalid clicks which we are not meant to go into details about so I'll just leave you with that one example.)5 days is a very short timeframe to be worried about the odd click here and there, wait a few months and see how the stats pan out over time, in the short term it is more than likely that the visitors are those you know or people who have been told of your site rather than surfers or referrals. Dont' be in such a rush to achieve things, all things come to those who wait (c) Guinness 2006
Don't get it?
1. Some click an ad on the first day. You get the money.
2. Some click on the same ad on the second and third day. Invalid clicks. You don't get the money.
Thus, if you earnings suddenly drop : There is no relevent ads appearing
And if there are many adsense exit links but you don't earn anything : some click the same ad(s)
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